What are realistic expectations for Ducks' final recruiting ranking in 2024 class? (2024)

They always say that to figure out where you are going, you need to understand where you’ve been. For the Ducks, the team’s best recruiting finish has been close to a top-five national ranking, but not quite there.

Mario Cristobal had the top-rated class in school history during the 2021 cycle, finishing sixth in the nation. His class in 2019 was renowned, with a seventh-place finish. Dan Lanning’s first full class in 2023 finished No. 9, while his inaugural class in 2022 was No. 16. The Ducks have also had classes that finished 13th, 14th, 16th and 19th over the past decade.

For context, Lanning’s ninth-ranked class in 2023 was about 15 points away from a top-five finish; Cristobal’s 2021 class was 4 points away from cracking the top five and his 2019 class was about 6 points away.

In the world of recruiting, the goalposts are constantly moving. It’s not as if the No. 1 ranked team in the nation has the same recruiting score each year and if you get to 300.00 points on 247Sports you are locked in for a top-five finish. With each cycle comes a new rubric for how teams measure up.

To get a better idea of things of this, let’s look at some averages over the last decade.

With those numbers in place, you can figure that you need a 247Sports score of 319.93 in order to secure a No. 1 ranked class, on average, and a score of at least 287.27 to have a top-five class, on average.

It should be noted that in 2021, the Ducks’ highest-rated class ever had a score of 287.67, so on average that would have been good enough for a top-five finish.

The Oregon Ducks have the No. 8 recruiting class in the nation, at least at the time that I’m writing this on Tuesday morning. By the time it gets published, they could move up a bit with a commitment or move down a spot because someone jumped them. Recruiting rankings are very fluid.

Here’s the 2024 haul thus far:

4-star CB Ify Obidegwu
4-star S Aaron Flowers
4-star WR Jordan Anderson
4-star QB Michael Van Buren
4-star OT Fox Crader
4-star DL Xadavien Sims
4-star WR Dillon Gresham
4-star EDGE Jaxson Jones
4-star S Kingston Lopa
4-star DL Tionne Gray
4-star TE A.J. Pugliano
3-star QB Luke Moga
3-star OL Devin Brooks
3-star OT Trent Ferguson
3-star TE Jackson Ford
3-star WR Jack Ressler

That’s 16 commitments, with 11 classified as blue-chip players. Not bad. On average, you will usually see about 25-30 commitments in a single class, so room is getting tight. Based on the players the Ducks are targeting who haven’t announced their commitments, it’s reasonable to believe any sdditions will be blue-chippers and no more three-star players will be taken.

Let’s take a look at some prospects Oregon is targeting and trending toward landing.

247Sports Composite Rating: 0.9945

National Ranking:12

Position Ranking:1

Crystal Ball:Oregon Ducks

On3 Recruiting Prediction Machine

Oregon Ducks — 97.1%
Georgia Bulldogs — 1.0%
Texas A&M Aggies — <1%

247Sports Composite Rating:0.9879

National Ranking:8

Position Ranking:1

Crystal Ball:None

On3 Recruiting Prediction Machine

Oregon Ducks — 70.5%
Arizona Wildcats — 9.3%
Notre Dame Fighting Irish — 4.0%
Tennessee Volunteers — 2.7%

247Sports Composite Rating:0.9807

National Ranking:6

Position Ranking:2

Crystal Ball:None

On3 Recruiting Prediction Machine

Oregon Ducks — 23.9%
Georgia Bulldogs — 20.9%
Miami Hurricanes — 15.0%
Texas A&M Aggies — 10.0%

247Sports Composite Rating:0.9879

National Ranking:23

Position Ranking:1

Crystal Ball:None

On3 Recruiting Prediction Machine

Oregon Ducks — 89.0%
USC Trojans — 3.5%
Georgia Bulldogs — 1.7%
Texas Longhorns — 1.1%

247Sports Composite Rating:0.9684

National Ranking:58

Position Ranking:4

Crystal Ball:None

On3 Recruiting Prediction Machine

Oregon Ducks — 29.7%
Alabama Crimson Tide — 25.9%
USC Trojans — 11.4%
Georgia Bulldogs — 9.5%

247Sports Composite Rating:0.9206

National Ranking:173

Position Ranking:17

Crystal Ball:Oregon Ducks

On3 Recruiting Prediction Machine

Oregon Ducks — 95.6%
Utah Utes — 1.8%
Washington Huskies — 1.1%

247Sports Composite Rating:0.9155

National Ranking:200

Position Ranking:8

Crystal Ball:Oregon Ducks

On3 Recruiting Prediction Machine

Oregon Ducks — 89.3%
Arizona Wildcats — 4.4%
Nebraska Cornhuskers — 2.8%
Auburn Tigers — 2.4%

247Sports Composite Rating:0.9313

National Ranking:60

Position Ranking:3

Crystal Ball:Oregon Ducks

On3 Recruiting Prediction Machine

Oregon Ducks — 94.3%
Kentucky Wildcats — 1.6%
Arkansas Razorbacks — 1.4%

247Sports Composite Rating:0.9306

National Ranking:175

Position Ranking:17

Crystal Ball:Oregon Ducks

On3 Recruiting Prediction Machine

USC Trojans — 62.6%
Oregon Ducks — 34.4%

247Sports Composite Rating:0.8693

National Ranking:847

Position Ranking:64

Crystal Ball:None

On3 Recruiting Prediction Machine

Oregon Ducks — 93.2%
Pittsburgh Panthers — 2.8%
Minnesota Golden Gophers — 2.4%

247Sports Composite Rating:0.9132

National Ranking:73

Position Ranking:8

Crystal Ball:None

On3 Recruiting Prediction Machine

Oregon Ducks — 83.7%
Oklahoma Sooners — 4.9%
USC Trojans — 2.6%
UCLA Bruins — 2.1%

If the Ducks get those 11 players to commit in the 2024 class, they should have the best recruiting class in school history. Of course, going 11-for-11 on that list may not happen, but you can reasonably assume Oregon will land eight or nine.

Plugging nine of those players — I excluded Nate Frazier and Aydin Breland — into the 247Sports class calculator gives the Ducks a score of 284.45 with 27 recruits. Compared to the school record score of 287.27 in 2021, that’s not bad. If you add commitments from both Frazier and Breland, the score rises to 295.52.

For now, let’s keep the 284.45 number, but also consider that there are prospects who the Ducks are recruiting hard, but not currently trending for. We’ve learned over the last couple of years that Dan Lanning should not be considered out of the race until pen hits paper.

Think about Peyton Bowens, Matayo Uiagalelei, Josh Conerly, or Nyckoles Harbor. All were five-star players who either ended up as Ducks, or strongly considered committing to Oregon when they weren’t viewed as Oregon leans early in the process.

Could that happen again? It’s possible. Let’s look at some long-shot recruits who the Ducks have been targeting this cycle and are not currently favored to pick Oregon.

this make you think. pic.twitter.com/fx7Y5JzfZb

— Colin Simmons ✍🏾 Call Me D1🚶🏾‍♂️ (@ColinSimmons__) June 27, 2023

247Sports Composite Rating:0.9963

National Ranking:6

Position Ranking:1

Crystal Ball:LSU Tigers/Texas Longhorns

On3 Recruiting Prediction Machine

Texas Longhorns — 58.5%
LSU Tigers — 21.1%
Alabama Crimson Tide — 8.3%
Georgia Bulldogs — 6.5%

https://t.co/rbzIFgodMy Had a great time at Oregon! Can’t wait to get back for an official visit! @CoachDanLanning @oregonfootball fans show love to the post! 🦆🫶🏽 pic.twitter.com/7nC8QyUUJn

— Kobe Black (@lilkb2xx) June 15, 2023

247Sports Composite Rating:0.9885

National Ranking:23

Position Ranking:2

Crystal Ball:Texas Longhorns

On3 Recruiting Prediction Machine

Texas Longhorns — 91.8%
Texas A&M Aggies — 2/0%
Oklahoma Sooners — 1.2%

247Sports Composite Rating:0.9988

National Ranking:2

Position Ranking:1

Crystal Ball:Oklahoma Sooners

On3 Recruiting Prediction Machine

Oklahoma Sooners — 79.6%
Missouri Tigers — 4.3%
Tennessee Volunteers — 2.8%
Oregon Ducks — 2.3%

247Sports Composite Rating:0.9389

National Ranking:92

Position Ranking:17

Crystal Ball:Ohio State

On3 Recruiting Prediction Machine

Ohio State Buckeyes — 91.2%
Missouri Tigers — 2.5%
Oregon Ducks — 1.4%

247Sports Composite Rating:0.9771

National Ranking:36

Position Ranking:9

Crystal Ball:None

On3 Recruiting Prediction Machine

Michigan Wolverines — 71.9%
Oregon Ducks — 9.2%
TCU Horned Frogs — 6.0%
Utah Utes — 1.8%

If Lanning and the Ducks can get to that 284.45 mark as previously mentioned, I think just about every Oregon fan would be happy. If they can add one of those long-shot recruits in the end, though, it would absolutely be the cherry on top of this recruiting class.

Allow me to get a little bit crazy here…

With nine of the 11 trending targets in the fold, if you were to add Jeremiah McClellan, you get to 286.95. If you add Kobe Black, you get a score of 291.56. Colin Simmons gets you to 292.34, and Gatlin Bair would get you to 290.48.

Want to get insane and add them all, and just for fun throw on Aydin Breland and Nate Frazier? It rings up to 312.81 with 31 commits.

That isn’t realistic, though so go ahead and erase that number from your mind, it was just for fun. We’re talking about a realistic finishing spot for the Ducks’ 2024 recruiting class in the final rankings. While we can’t perfectly predict which players will commit and which ones will not, it feels like an accurate final score — based on all of the outcomes I’ve laid before you — would be about 288.00.

If the Ducks can get to that mark, then this class should be viewed as a resounding success, and take over as the best class in school history. No logical or valid complaints from anyone.

OK, so Oregon finishes 2024 with a recruiting score of 288.00. Where does that leave it? Let’s go back to the averages I laid out earlier in the article.

The average score of a fifth-place class over the last 10 years was 287.27. In some years, the score was higher, and in some years the score was far lower. However, on average, if you can reach a score of 288, you will crack the top five.

So, what is a realistic expectation for the Ducks in the 2024 cycle? I think it is entirely possible they secure the best class in school history and crack the top five for the first time ever. Yes, I absolutely am being optimistic in my projections, but based on what we’ve seen from Dan Lanning in the past, and making note of how well this staff has closed on some high-profile recruits in the past couple of years, I think it’s fair to expect that trend to continue.

Would I bet on a top-five finish? Eh, it’s tough to say. There are so many variables at play that I think it’s just as likely that Oregon finishes at No. 6 or No. 7 again in the rankings, which is absolutely nothing to be disappointed by. I don’t, however, see a world where the Ducks miss a top-10 finish in this cycle. With the momentum they have, and the trends we’ve seen develop, it should be an incredibly entertaining final stretch run as we close in on the early signing period.