NFL Pick'em Pool Strategy, Confidence Rankings: Straight-Up Picks Week 13 (2024)

by Nick Galaida (nickgalaida) Last Updated 2023-11-30 23:00:05

2023 NFL Pick’em

Each week in this article, I will rank each of my selections in order of confidence and provide reasoning on all of my top picks.

As a disclaimer, these picks lock on Thursday afternoon for the purposes of this article, which is, of course, prior to getting final injury reports for the week. If looking for any last-minute thoughts or wishful changes to these selections, make sure to join the RotoGrinders discord and follow @CommishFilmRoom on Twitter.

NFL Week 13 Pick’Em Pool Confidence Rankings

Week 13 Selections

1. Jacksonville Jaguars
2. Miami Dolphins
3. San Francisco 49ers
4. Dallas Cowboys
5. Kansas City Chiefs
6. Los Angeles Chargers
7. Detroit Lions
8. Pittsburgh Steelers
9. Tennessee Titans
10. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
11. Los Angeles Rams
12. Denver Broncos
13. New York Jets

NFL Pick’Em Pool Strategy Week 13

Jaguars (vs. Bengals)

In Week 12, the Jaguars led the NFL in defensive pressure rate in a 24-21 victory over the Texans. The Bengals lost at home to the Steelers and had the 7th-lowest defensive pressure of any team in the league last weekend. Trevor Lawrence has been inconsistent so far this fall, but he has been one of the best quarterbacks in the league from a clean pocket. From a clean pocket, Lawrence ranks 11th-best in passer rating this season, and he should not face much pressure on Monday against Cincinnati. Jacksonville is arguably the safest option on the board in Week 13.

Dolphins (vs. Commanders)

There have been three teams that have given the Dolphins trouble this year – the Bills, Eagles, and Chiefs. All of those teams have been able to get pressure on Tua Tagovailoa, which has disrupted the rhythm and timing of the Miami offense. The Commanders ranked 21st in defensive pressure rate in Week 12 and are likely to generate even less pressure in Week 13 against the Dolphins. Miami has a number of notable names on their injury report this week, but they should find a way to win this contest regardless of how things shake out when the final injury report of the week is posted.

49ers (vs. Eagles)

The 49ers played a relatively easy game against the Seahawks on Thursday and have a significant rest advantage over the Eagles. In addition to playing at a rest disadvantage, the Eagles are coming off of a game in which their defense was on the field for an incredulous 92 plays and 40 minutes against the Bills. Philadelphia was out-gained by 98 yards in Week 8 against the Commanders, 114 yards in Week 9 against the Cowboys, 98 yards in Week 11 against the Chiefs, and 127 yards in Week 12 against the Bills. There is little doubt that the 49ers are the better team in this matchup. Brock Purdy and company are favorites for a reason in this spot.

Cowboys (vs. Seahawks)

Since Week 8, with edge defender Uchenna Nwosu off of the field, the Seahawks’ defense ranks 29th in EPA/play and 27th in success rate. They have been particularly poor against the run, ranking 32nd in EPA/play and 30th in success rate. On the other side of this matchup, Dak Prescott and the Cowboys are looking like legitimate Super Bowl contenders. Since Week 6, Dallas ranks 1st in offensive EPA/play and 2nd in success rate. Defensively, the Cowboys have posted a 43.6% pressure rate or better in three consecutive weeks. Dallas is the better team on both sides of the ball in this matchup – they should be able to get the job done here.

Chiefs (vs. Packers)

Green Bay surprised many people with a 29-22 win over the Lions on Thanksgiving, but that had more to do with the ineffectiveness of the Lions defense than it did with anything impressive that the Packers did. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs have been struggling offensively of late, but their defense has been exceptional – ranking 6th in EPA/play and 8th in success rate this season. Even on the road, the Chiefs are a far more trustworthy team in this matchup, making them deserving of a high ranking in confidence pools in Week 13.

2023 Weekly Results

Week 1: 11-5
Week 2: 10-6
Week 3: 9-7
Week 4: 12-4
Week 5: 7-7
Week 6: 9-6
Week 7: 6-7
Week 8: 11-5
Week 9: 9-5
Week 10: 6-8
Week 11: 11-3
Week 12: 11-5

2022 Weekly Results

Week 1: 10-5-1
Week 2: 8-8
Week 3: 13-3
Week 4: 9-7
Week 5: 11-5
Week 6: 8-6
Week 7: 7-7
Week 8: 12-3
Week 9: 10-3
Week 10: 7-7
Week 11: 11-3
Week 12: 11-5
Week 13: 8-6-1
Week 14: 8-5
Week 15: 11-5
Week 16: 8-8
Week 17: 10-5-1
Week 18: 9-8

2021 Weekly Results

Week 1: 10-6
Week 2: 10-6
Week 3: 15-1
Week 4: 9-7
Week 5: 13-3
Week 6: 9-5
Week 7: 10-3
Week 8: 8-7
Week 9: 9-5
Week 10: 5-8-1
Week 11: 8-7
Week 12: 7-8
Week 13: 11-3
Week 14: 12-2
Week 15: 11-5
Week 16: 11-5
Week 17: 13-3
Week 18: 10-6